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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts believe the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.